【主题】How Does Household Consumption Respond to Pension Increases?——Evidence from Monthly Panel Data in Urban China

【主讲人】黄炜 长聘副教授（北京大学国家发展研究院）

【主持人】刘愿 教授

【时间】2024年7月4日（周四）14:00

【地点】301会议室

【摘要】Consumption response to permanent and transitory income changes is of central interest in economic studies. Understanding how consumption responds differently to transitory or permanent income changes is important for academia and policymakers. Exploring the prefectural policies that permanently and temporarily increase pension income in urban China, we use a representative monthly panel diary dataset to examine how household consumption responds to transitory and permanent pension increases. We find that, for each pension increase, the reform, on average, increases both permanent and transitory pension incomes among the eligible households, respectively. Based on the responses in the consumption, our estimates yield an estimate of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) being 0.64 to 0.96 but 0.05 to 0.12 for transitory income, consistent with structural estimation. The consumption responses differ by consumption categories. The estimated MPC is much larger among the households with higher liquidity constraints. By contrast, we find no significant changes in other household incomes, including wage, property, business or transfers, or other outcomes such as household size, structure, and individual labor supply. This paper provides novel evidence about different household responses to transitory and permanent income changes and delivers policy implications for predicting dynamic household responses to public policies.

【主讲人简介】北大博雅青年学者、北大国发院经济学副教授（长聘），海外高层次国家级青年人才计划入选者，国发院本科教学主任。先后任职于美国经济研究局（NBER）、新加坡国立大学（NUS）和美国埃默里大学（Emory University）。研究兴趣主要集中于劳动经济学、健康经济学和公共经济学等领域。黄炜老师于2016年获得哈佛大学经济学博士学位。黄炜老师在 Nature，REStat，AEJ-applied，JoLE，JDE, JHR, JEP 和《经济研究》《管理世界》《世界经济》《经济学》（季刊）国内外顶尖学术期刊上发表论文40余篇。担任国际SSCI杂志EoT 共同主编，JEBO, CER和JAE副主编以及《经济学》（季刊）副主编。曾获张培刚发展经济学青年学者奖，青木昌彦经济学论文奖，教育部人文社科优秀成果-青年成果奖等。

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